Population Peaks
World population projections need to be treated with caution. Malthus could be forgiven for his pessimism, working as he was 200 years ago, but as late as 1968 Professor Paul Ehrlich was blowing the same warning trumpet that we were in danger of breeding ourselves into oblivion. However, there is nothing more ___ 31 ___ than human behaviour. Even before the birth of the world’s six billionth inhabitant in 1999, demographers had marked the deceleration of population growth. Now a team in Australia is talking about the end of world population growth.
Looking back is easier than looking forward. The world's population has doubled since 1960 and quadrupled in the 20th century. ___ 32 ___ the rate of growth was already slowing from 2.4% per year down to 1.8% in the 1990s. The change in distribution has been equally dramatic: Africa, until the advent of Aids, has tripled its population since 1960 and Asia has seen a doubling.
Sensibly, the 1994 United Nations conference on population and development focused on human needs rather than human ___ 33 ___. Delegates estimated that by 2000, some \17$ bn would be needed if education access was to be widened and women's reproductive health rights extended. This ___ 34 ___ is still far short of being met. Average birth rates for women in developing countries have fallen from six per woman to three in the past three decades. Like the developed world, the developing world is getting older with the 10% over 60 expected to rise to 20% by 2050. But there are even more urgent problems. Three out of five people in the third world ___ 35 ___ basic sanitation, one third have no access to clean water, one quarter no adequate housing, and one fifth no access to modern health facilities. Meeting these challenges is overdue.
THE GUARDIAN WEEKLY